1. Rogers and Emery Combine for Heist
Do the final scores sometimes deceive? That is the question. Villa's run of victories was extended versus Manchester United, but so did the nagging doubts. Statistically, they were inferior by multiple metrics – less attempts (12-15), a smaller share of the ball (43-57), fewer big chances (2-3). Typically, the victory was by a narrow margin. Consistently, expected goals (xG) was unimpressed: according to data United had the slight advantage 1.31-1.02. Yet the reality is games are determined by more than statistics. They are won by collective effort, shrewd management and moments of magic – and Villa have all three. Morgan Rogers may be their sole standout, but he’s delivering with festive regularity. The Villa manager is shrewd, seasoned, five years ahead of his counterpart. If Rogers profited from a positional error, it was likely because the manager identified that his opponent was uncomfortable, and directed his attacker to start wide, drive inside and cause him problems. Individual brilliance and coaching, working together.
2. Amorim Continues to Fall Short
Following United's victory over Brighton 4-2 in late October, their fans felt optimism return. They had won three league games in a row for the first time under Ruben Amorim. Their position climbed to fourth. And the wins were impressive victories – over Brighton (one of their many bogey teams), Liverpool (away!) and Sunderland (at Old Trafford, versus a newly-promoted side, but still – an untroubled victory). Senne Lammens looked solid, Bryan Mbeumo offered threat and there was a positive mood. But then United returned to poor form. In a run of eight matches, a mere pair of successes, six disappointing results. At Villa Park they were the more dominant side without ever seeming like taking three points. Yes, Matheus Cunha scored an excellent finish, but he also blazed over a simple chance. Yes, United were hit by fitness issues (to key players), but they conceded soft goals. Since his arrival in England, Amorim still hasn’t worked out how to win consistently.
3. Arsenal Grind Out a Vital Victory
It was an evening fixture on the Saturday before Christmas but a noticeable shortage of fluency in the opposition box made for a drab affair. For Everton, the issue was expected with offensive players absent, and the experienced winger struggling to lift an entire team single-handedly. In many respects it is astonishing that the Toffees sat fifth in the table recently given they have played all term without a proven goalscorer. For Arsenal and the Spanish coach, while he enjoyed a merited victory and reclaiming first place of the table, the deficiency should be just as worrying given their designs on the Premier League. Arteta insisted that victories will inevitably become bigger with graft and determination. But it is somewhat premature in the season for a team that can start with elite players, while leaving exciting options on the bench, to be dependent on scrappy victories.
4. Guardiola’s Festive City Investigations
On Christmas Day Pep Guardiola will check the weights to ensure his Manchester City players have not enjoyed excessive celebrations. Guardiola said the team wanted to have a rest day after their recent victory but he refused because the performance was insufficient. So they will recuperate, work for those who didn't feature, and post-holiday, then brief training for the next fixture. Guardiola detailed how the side can improve. “I’m good at reading what happens in the game, identifying weaknesses – if the players were in optimal spots, we could generate more chances.” Pep also intends to enjoy a rest: “I will be on vacation with the family to relax. A trip to Barcelona is planned – it's highly recommended, the food is excellent.”
5. Isak’s Injury Overshadows Big Moment
Isak's clinical effort at Tottenham felt, for a glorious few seconds, like a statement. This was exactly what Liverpool invested heavily for him to do, to break tight games with his intelligent runs and finishing ability, and the confidence with which he clipped in from good service was highly promising. So the image of him leaving immediately, due to a ill-judged tackle, was a major worry for Arne Slot and a shame for any neutral who would like to see such a gifted player hit full tilt again. It is believed Isak has sustained a fractured leg and he likely faces a lengthy period on the sidelines. It would be a significant setback with Slot’s team having snuck up on the top four, putting together a solid undefeated streak bookended by Isak’s maiden league strikes in their colours. Their fortunes this season appear inextricably linked to those of their prize asset.
6. Penalty Debate Rages After Newcastle Draw
Managers often complain about contentious refereeing decisions as a means of shifting the focus from matters they would prefer were not talked about. The 13 points Newcastle have failed to secure from leading situations this season appears relevant. Eddie Howe certainly did not seem particularly eager to mention that problematic pattern following his side’s failure to protect a 2-0 lead against Chelsea in a game they eventually tied. Yet the Magpies' boss was surely correct to highlight a decision made by the referee not to award his team a penalty following a obvious foul on their winger. With the score then 2-1, a spot-kick could have changed the narrative. Was the decision to offer the opposing player the leeway informed by Gordon’s reputation for being skilled at earning fouls and sometimes going down too easily? Comments by a former England striker was interesting. “He sees the challenge coming,” came the observation. “He's prepared for the impact and he’s waiting for it. I think he intends to hit the deck. But the force and aggression there … it constitutes a foul.”
7. A 99.17% Certainty
Brentford’s initial success on their travels this season spelled a welcome result for Keith Andrews. Rather than celebrate, Andrews spoke kindly about Wolves, the club he came through at. “I spent nine years here,” he said. Wolves’ situation is truly alarming; data analysts state – maybe optimistically – their probability of going down at overwhelmingly high, leaving only pride at stake beyond pride. A experienced defender brutally spelled out|bluntly outlined|frankly
